J Neurosurg 143:641–653, 2025
This retrospective study of 661 patients with unruptured intracranial aneurysms found a 4.4% aneurysm-related mortality and 0.6% annual rupture rate. No ruptures occurred with PHASES <8 or ELAPSS <15, highlighting these thresholds for risk stratification and the importance of close follow-up, especially in the first 10 years.
• A retrospective study analyzed 661 patients with 767 unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) managed conservatively over 4 decades.
• The overall aneurysm-related mortality rate was 4.4%, with 3.5% of patients experiencing rupture; annual hemorrhage rate was 0.6%.
• Most ruptures (87%) occurred within the first 5 years after diagnosis; no ruptures were observed after 10 years.
• No ruptures or aneurysm-related deaths occurred in patients with PHASES score <8 or ELAPSS score <15.
• Independent predictors of rupture included aneurysm size, PHASES and ELAPSS scores, posterior circulation location, and age ≥70 years.
• Aneurysms <7 mm in diameter did not rupture in this cohort, but this may reflect selection bias.
• Lifelong regular follow-up is recommended for conservatively managed UIAs, especially in the first 10 years.
• PHASES and ELAPSS score thresholds can help identify high-risk patients who may benefit from treatment.







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