Predicting the natural history of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations: external validation of rupture risk scores

J Neurosurg 143:490–498, 2025

This retrospective study externally validated four rupture risk scoring systems for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVMs) and found their predictive performance ranged from nondiscriminatory to poor. The R2eD AVM scale performed best but still showed limited accuracy, highlighting the need for improved predictive models.

• The study externally validated four rupture risk scoring systems for unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (bAVMs): Nataf, R2eD AVM, ARI, and VALE.

• Current rupture risk scores showed nondiscriminatory to poor performance in predicting ruptured presentation in a Peruvian single-center population.

• The R2eD AVM scale had the best performance among evaluated scores, but its discrimination was still poor (AUROC 0.664).

• A logistic regression model using size, location, venous tortuosity, and ventricular involvement showed only fair discrimination (AUROC 0.709).

• Key risk factors for rupture included smaller size, periventricular/infratentorial location, absence of venous tortuosity, and ventricular involvement.

• Some variables in published scores, such as venous tortuosity and venous drainage features, were not predictive in this cohort.

• Further research and better predictive factors are needed to improve rupture risk assessment in bAVMs.

• The R2eD AVM score can be used preferentially in clinical practice, but with caution due to its limited performance.

Radiosurgery for Unruptured Brain Arteriovenous Malformations: An International Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Neurosurgery 80:888–898, 2017

The role of intervention in the management of unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVM) is controversial.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze in a multicenter, retrospective cohort study, the outcomes following radiosurgery for unruptured AVMs and determine predictive factors.

METHODS: We evaluated and pooled AVM radiosurgery data from 8 institutions participating in the International Gamma Knife Research Foundation. Patients with unruptured AVMs and ≥12 mo of follow-up were included in the study cohort. Favorable outcome was defined as AVM obliteration, no postradiosurgical hemorrhage, and no permanently symptomatic radiation-induced changes.

RESULTS: The unruptured AVM cohort comprised 938 patients with a median age of 35 yr. The median nidus volume was 2.4 cm3, 71% of AVMs were located in eloquent brain areas, and the Spetzler-Martin grade was III or higher in 57%. The median radiosurgical margin dose was 21 Gy and follow-up was 71 mo. AVM obliteration was achieved in 65%. The annual postradiosurgery hemorrhage rate was 1.4%. Symptomatic and permanent radiation-induced changes occurred in 9% and 3%, respectively. Favorable outcome was achieved in 61%. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, smaller AVM maximum diameter (P = .001), the absence of AVM-associated arterial aneurysms (P = .001), and higher margin dose (P = .002) were found to be independent predictors of a favorable outcome. A margin dose ≥ 20 Gy yielded a significantly higher rate of favorable outcome (70% vs 36%; P < .001)

CONCLUSION: Radiosurgery affords an acceptable risk to benefit profile for patients harboring unruptured AVMs. These findings justify further prospective studies comparing radiosurgical intervention to conservative management for unruptured AVMs.

 

Radiosurgery for Spetzler-Martin Grade III arteriovenous malformations

Multimodality management of Spetzler-Martin Grade III arteriovenous malformations

J Neurosurg 120:959–969, 2014

Intracranial arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) are most commonly classified based on their Spetzler- Martin grades. Due to the composition of the Spetzler-Martin grading scale, Grade III AVMs are the most heterogeneous, comprising 4 distinct lesion subtypes. The management of this class of AVMs and the optimal treatment approach when intervention is indicated remain controversial. The authors report their experience with radiosurgery for the treatment of Grade III AVMs in a large cohort of patients.

Methods. All patients with Spetzler-Martin Grade III AVMs treated with radiosurgery at the University of Virginia over the 20-year span from 1989 to 2009 were identified. Patients who had less than 2 years of radiological follow-up and did not have evidence of complete obliteration during that period were excluded from the study, leaving 398 cases for analysis. The median patient age at treatment was 31 years. The most common presenting symptoms were hemorrhage (59%), seizure (20%), and headache (10%). The median AVM volume was 2.8 cm3, and the median prescription dose was 20 Gy. The median radiological and clinical follow-up intervals were 54 and 68 months, respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression analysis were used to identify factors associated with obliteration, postradiosurgery radiation-induced changes (RIC), and favorable outcome.

Results. Complete AVM obliteration was observed in 69% of Grade III AVM cases at a median time of 46 months after radiosurgery. The actuarial obliteration rates at 3 and 5 years were 38% and 60%, respectively. The obliteration rate was higher in ruptured AVMs than in unruptured ones (p < 0.001). Additionally, the obliteration rate for Grade III AVMs with small size (< 3 cm diameter), deep venous drainage, and location in eloquent cortex was higher than for the other subtypes (p < 0.001). Preradiosurgery AVM rupture (p = 0.016), no preradiosurgery embolization (p = 0.003), increased prescription dose (p < 0.001), fewer isocenters (p = 0.006), and a single draining vein (p = 0.018) were independent predictors of obliteration. The annual risk of postradiosurgery hemorrhage during the latency period was 1.7%. Two patients (0.5%) died of hemorrhage during the radiosurgical latency period. The rates of symptomatic and permanent RIC were 12% and 4%, respectively. Absence of preradiosurgery AVM rupture (p < 0.001) and presence of a single draining vein (p < 0.001) were independent predictors of RIC. Favorable outcome was observed in 63% of patients. Independent predictors of favorable outcome were no preradiosurgery hemorrhage (p = 0.014), increased prescription dose (p < 0.001), fewer isocenters (p = 0.014), deep location (p = 0.014), single draining vein (p = 0.001), and lower Virginia radiosurgery AVM scale score (p = 0.016).

Conclusions. Radiosurgery for Spetzler-Martin Grade III AVMs yields relatively high rates of obliteration with a low rate of adverse procedural events. Small and ruptured lesions are more likely to become obliterated after radiosurgery than large and unruptured ones.