Tag: prediction

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Morphometric Study of the Posterior Fossa: Identification of Practical Parameters for Tailored Selection of Surgical Routes to the Petroclival Region

J Neurol Surg B Skull Base 2022;83:37–43

The petroclival region is an integral part of the skull base. It can harbor different pathologies and provides access to the petroclival junction and cerebellopontine angle. We present the results of the morphometric analysis of the posterior fossa and a prediction model to enable skull base surgeons to choose an optimal surgical corridor considering patient’s bony anatomy.

Methods Ninety patients (14 to assess interobserver reliability) with temporal bone computed tomography were selected. Exclusion criteria included patients <18 years of age, radiographic evidence of trauma, infection, or previous surgery. The images were analyzed using OsiriX MD (Bernex, Switzerland). We recorded clival length, vertical angle, and surface area, and petroclival angle, petrous apex, and translabyrinthine corridors volume.

Results The average age was 49.5 years (55%) for males. The mean clival length and surface areas were 44.2mm (standard deviation [SD]   4.1) and 8.1 cm2 (SD   1.3). The mean petrous apex and translabyrinthine corridors volumes were 2.2 cm3 (SD   0.6) and 10.1 cm3 (SD   3.7). The mean petroclival angle at the internal auditory canal (IAC) was 154.9 degrees (SD   9). The clival length correlated positively with clival surface area (rho   0.6, p <0.05), petrous apex volume (rho   0.3, p < 0.05), and translabyrinthine volume (rho   0.3, p < 0.05).

Conclusion The petroclival region is complex and with high variability of surgical significance. The use of preoperative measurements of the clival length and petroclival angle as part of surgical planning that could help the surgeon to choose an optimal surgical corridor by overcoming the anatomical variability elements.

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Thirty-Day Hospital Readmission and Surgical Complication Rates for Shunting in Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus: A Large National Database Analysis

Neurosurgery 86:843–850, 2020

Research on age-related complications secondary to shunts in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) is primarily limited to single-center studies and small cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the rates of hospital readmission and surgical complications, and factors that predict them, following shunt surgery for NPH in a large healthcare network.

METHODS: Surgical procedures, complications, and readmissions for adults undergoing ventricular shunting for NPH were determined using de-identified claims from a privately insured United States healthcare network in years 2007-2014. Univariate and multivariate statistics were used to determine factors that predict poor surgical outcomes. The primary outcome variable was surgical complications or readmissions (composite variable for any major perioperative complication or 30-d readmission).

RESULTS: The 30-d readmission rate for 974 patients with NPH who underwent ventricular shunting was 7.29%; the most common reasons for readmission were shunt-related complications, infection, hemorrhage, altered mental status, and cardiopulmonary and musculoskeletal problems. The perioperative complication rate was 21.15%, including intraparenchymal hemorrhage (5.85%) and extra-axial (subdural or epidural) hematoma (5.54%). The overall rate of having a surgical complication or 30-d readmission was 25.15%. Age did not predict surgical complication or 30-d readmission. Preoperative comorbidities independently associated with poor outcome were myocardial infarction within 1 yr (OR = 3.984, 95% CI = 1.105-14.368); existing cerebrovascular disease (odds ratio [OR] = 2.206, 95% CI = 1.544-3.152); and moderate/severe renal disease (OR = 2.000, 95% CI = 1.155-3.464).

CONCLUSION: The rate of complications or readmission within 30 d of ventricular shunting for NPH is 25.15%. Preoperative comorbidities of myocardial infarction within 1 yr, cerebrovascular disease, and moderate/severe renal disease are independent risk factors for poor outcome.

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External validation of cerebral aneurysm rupture probability model with data from two patient cohorts

Acta Neurochirurgica (2018) 160:2425–2434

For a treatment decision of unruptured cerebral aneurysms, physicians and patients need to weigh the risk of treatment against the risk of hemorrhagic stroke caused by aneurysm rupture. The aim of this study was to externally evaluate a recently developed statistical aneurysm rupture probability model, which could potentially support such treatment decisions.

Methods Segmented image data and patient information obtained from two patient cohorts including 203 patients with 249 aneurysms were used for patient-specific computational fluid dynamics simulations and subsequent evaluation of the statistical model in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and goodness of fit. The model’s performance was further compared to a similaritybased approach for rupture assessment by identifying aneurysms in the training cohort that were similar in terms of hemodynamics and shape compared to a given aneurysm from the external cohorts.

Results When applied to the external data, the model achieved a good discrimination and goodness of fit (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUC = 0.82), which was only slightly reduced compared to the optimism-corrected AUC in the training population (AUC = 0.84). The accuracy metrics indicated a small decrease in accuracy compared to the training data (misclassification error of 0.24 vs. 0.21). The model’s prediction accuracy was improved when combined with the similarity approach (misclassification error of 0.14).

Conclusions The model’s performance measures indicated a good generalizability for data acquired at different clinical institutions. Combining the model-based and similarity-based approach could further improve the assessment and interpretation of new cases, demonstrating its potential use for clinical risk assessment.

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Development of a statistical model for discrimination of rupture status in posterior communicating artery aneurysms

Acta Neurochirurgica (2018) 160:1643–1652

Intracranial aneurysms at the posterior communicating artery (PCOM) are known to have high rupture rates compared to other locations. We developed and internally validated a statistical model discriminating between ruptured and unruptured PCOM aneurysms based on hemodynamic and geometric parameters, angio-architectures, and patient age with the objective of its future use for aneurysm risk assessment.

Methods A total of 289 PCOM aneurysms in 272 patients modeled with image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) were used to construct statistical models using logistic group lasso regression. These models were evaluated with respect to discrimination power and goodness of fit using tenfold nested cross-validation and a split-sample approach to mimic external validation.

Results The final model retained maximum and minimum wall shear stress (WSS), mean parent artery WSS, maximum and minimum oscillatory shear index, shear concentration index, and aneurysm peak flow velocity, along with aneurysm height and width, bulge location, non-sphericity index, mean Gaussian curvature, angio-architecture type, and patient age. The corresponding area under the curve (AUC) was 0.8359. When omitting data from each of the three largest contributing hospitals in turn, and applying the corresponding model on the left-out data, the AUCs were 0.7507, 0.7081, and 0.5842, respectively.

Conclusions Statistical models based on a combination of patient age, angio-architecture, hemodynamics, and geometric characteristics can discriminate between ruptured and unruptured PCOM aneurysms with an AUC of 84%. It is important to include data from different hospitals to create models of aneurysm rupture that are valid across hospital populations.

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Predictive outcome factors in the young patient treated with lumbar disc herniation surgery

Surgical technique and effectiveness of microendoscopic discectomy for large uncontained lumbar disc herniations

J Neurosurg Spine 25:448–455, 2016

The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive factors for outcome after lumbar disc herniation surgery in young patients.

Methods In the national Swedish spine register, the authors identified 180 patients age 20 years or younger, in whom preoperative and 1-year postoperative data were available. The cohort was treated with primary open surgery due to lumbar disc herniation between 2000 and 2010. Before and 1 year after surgery, the patients graded their back and leg pain on a visual analog scale, quality of life by the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey and EuroQol–5 Dimensions, and disability by the Oswestry Disability Index. Subjective satisfaction rate was registered on a Likert scale (satisfied, undecided, or dissatisfied). The authors evaluated if age, sex, preoperative level of leg and back pain, duration of leg pain, pain distribution, quality of life, mental status, and/or disability were associated with the outcome. The primary end point variable was the grade of patient satisfaction.

Results Lumbar disc herniation surgery in young patients normalizes quality of life according to the 36-Item Short- Form Health Survey, and only 4.5% of the patients were unsatisfied with the surgical outcome. Predictive factors for inferior postoperative patient-reported outcome measures (PROM) scores were severe preoperative leg or back pain, low preoperative mental health, and pronounced preoperative disability, but only low preoperative mental health was associated with inferiority in the subjective grade of satisfaction. No associations were found between preoperative duration of leg pain, distribution of pain, or health-related quality of life and the postoperative PROM scores or the subjective grade of satisfaction.

Conclusions Lumbar disc herniation surgery in young patients generally yields a satisfactory outcome. Severe preoperative pain, low mental health, and severe disability increase the risk of reaching low postoperative PROM scores, but are only of relevance clinically (low subjective satisfaction) for patients with low preoperative mental health.

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Clinical and Surgical Predictors of Complications Following Surgery for the Treatment of Cervical Spondylotic Myelopathy

Clinical_and_Surgical_Predictors_of_Complications

Neurosurgery 79:33–44, 2016

Surgery for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) is generally safe and effective. Nonetheless, complications occur in 11% to 38% of patients. Knowledge of important predictors of complications will help clinicians identify high-risk patients and institute prevention and management strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical and surgical predictors of perioperative complications in CSM patients.

METHODS: Four hundred seventy-nine surgical CSM patients were enrolled in the prospective CSM-International study at 16 sites. A panel of physicians reviewed all adverse events and classified each as related or unrelated to surgery. Univariate analyses were performed to determine differences between patients who experienced a perioperative complication and those who did not. A complication prediction rule was developed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS: Seventy-eight patients experienced 89 perioperative complications (16.25%). On univariate analysis, the major clinical risk factors were ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) (P = .055), number of comorbidities (P = .002), comorbidity score (P = .006), diabetes mellitus (P = .001), and coexisting gastrointestinal (P = .039) and cardiovascular (P = .046) disorders. Patients undergoing a 2-stage surgery (P = .002) and those with a longer operative duration (P = .001) were at greater risk of perioperative complications. A final prediction model consisted of diabetes mellitus (odds ratio [OR] = 1.96, P = .060), number of comorbidities (OR = 1.20, P = .069), operative duration (OR = 1.07, P = .002), and OPLL (OR = 1.75, P = .040).

CONCLUSION: Surgical CSM patients have a higher risk of perioperative complications if they have a greater number of comorbidities, coexisting diabetes mellitus, OPLL, and a longer operative duration. Surgeons can use this information to discuss the risks and benefits of surgery with patients, to plan case-specific preventive strategies, and to ensure appropriate management in the perioperative period.

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Who Should Undergo Surgery for Degenerative Spondylolisthesis?

Spondylolisthesis

Spine 2013;38:1799–1811

Combined prospective randomized controlled trial and observational cohort study of degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS) with an as-treated analysis.

Objective. To determine modifi ers of the treatment effect (TE) of surgery (the difference between surgical and nonoperative outcomes) for DS using subgroup analysis. Summary of Background Data. Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial demonstrated a positive surgical TE for DS at the group level. However, individual characteristics may affect TE.

Methods. Patients with DS were treated with either surgery (n = 395) or nonoperative care (n = 210) and were analyzed according to treatment received. Fifty-fi ve baseline variables were used to defi ne subgroups for calculating the time-weighted average TE for the Oswestry Disability Index during 4 years (TE = Δ Oswestry Disability Index surgery − Δ Oswestry Disability Index nonoperative ). Variables with signifi cant subgroup-by-treatment interactions ( P < 0.05) were simultaneously entered into a multivariate model to select independent TE predictors.

Results. All analyzed subgroups that included at least 50 patients improved signifi cantly more with surgery than with nonoperative treatment ( P < 0.05). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that age 67 years or less (TE − 15.7 vs. − 11.8 for age > 67, P = 0.014); female sex (TE − 15.6 vs. − 11.2 for males, P = 0.01); the absence of stomach problems (TE − 15.2 vs. − 11.3 for those with stomach problems, P = 0.035); neurogenic claudication (TE − 15.3 vs. − 9.0 for those without claudication, P = 0.004); refl ex asymmetry (TE − 17.3 vs. − 13.0 for those without asymmetry, P = 0.016); opioid use (TE − 18.4 vs. − 11.7 for those not using opioids, P < 0.001); not taking antidepressants (TE − 14.5 vs. − 5.4 for those on antidepressants, P = 0.014); dissatisfaction with symptoms (TE − 14.5 vs. − 8.3 for those satisfi ed or neutral, P = 0.039); and anticipating a high likelihood of improvement with surgery (TE − 14.8 vs. − 5.1 for anticipating a low likelihood of improvement with surgery, P = 0.019) were independently associated with greater TE.

Conclusion. Patients who met strict inclusion criteria improved more with surgery than with nonoperative treatment, regardless of other specific characteristics. However, TE varied signifi cantly across certain subgroups.

Level of Evidence: 3

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Who Should Have Surgery for Spinal Stenosis?

Spine 2012 ; 37 : 1791 – 1802

Study Design. Combined prospective randomized controlled trial and observational cohort study of spinal stenosis (SpS) with an as-treated analysis.

Objective. To determine modifiers of the treatment effect (TE) of surgery (the difference between surgical and nonoperative outcomes) for SpS using subgroup analysis.

Summary of Background Data. The Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial demonstrated a positive surgical TE for SpS at the group level. However, individual characteristics may affect TE. No previous studies have evaluated TE modifiers in SpS.

Methods. SpS patients were treated with either surgery (n = 419) or nonoperative care (n = 235) and were analyzed according to treatment received. Fifty-three baseline variables were used to define subgroups for calculating the time-weighted average TE for the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) over 4 years (TE = ΔODI surgery – ΔODI nonoperative ). Variables with significant subgroup × treatment interactions ( P < 0.05) were simultaneously entered into a multivariate model to select independent TE predictors.

Results. Other than smokers, all analyzed subgroups including at least 50 patients improved signifi cantly more with surgery than with nonoperative treatment ( P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis demonstrated: baseline ODI ≤ 56 (TE –15.0 vs. –4.4, ODI > 56, P < 0.001), not smoking (TE –11.7 vs. –1.6 smokers, P < 0.001), neuroforaminal stenosis (TE –14.2 vs. –8.7 no neuroforaminal stenosis, P = 0.002), predominant leg pain (TE –11.5 vs. –7.3 predominant back pain, P = 0.035), not lifting at work (TE –12.5 vs . –0.5 lifting at work, P = 0.017), and the presence of a neurological deficit (TE –13.3 vs . –7.2 no neurological deficit, P < 0.001) were associated with greater TE.

Conclusion. With the exception of smokers, patients who met strict inclusion criteria improved more with surgery than with nonoperative treatment, regardless of other specific characteristics. However, TE varied significantly across certain subgroups, and these data can be used to individualize shared decision making discussions about likely outcomes. Smoking cessation should be considered before surgery for SpS.

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