Tag: survival analysis

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Long-term survivors in 976 supratentorial glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype patients

J Neurosurg 142:174–186, 2025

Glioblastoma, isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)–wildtype is the most aggressive glioma with poor outcomes. The authors explored survival rates and factors associated with long-term survival in patients harboring a glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype.

METHODS In an observational, retrospective, single-center study, the authors examined the medical records of 976 adults newly diagnosed with supratentorial glioblastomas, IDH-wildtype between January 2000 and January 2021. They analyzed clinical-, imaging-, and treatment-related factors associated with 2-year and 5-year survival.

RESULTS The median overall survival was 11.2 months (12.2 months for patients included after 2005 and the introduction of standard combined chemoradiotherapy). The median progression-free survival was 9.4 months (10.0 months for patients included after 2005). Overall, 17.6% of patients reached a 2-year overall survival, while 2.2% of patients reached a 5-year overall survival. Furthermore, 6.6% of patients survived 2 years without progression, while 1.1% of patients survived 5 years without progression. Two factors that were consistently associated with 2-year and 5-year survival were first-line oncological treatment with standard combined chemoradiotherapy and methylated O 6 -methylguanineDNA methyltransferase promoter. Other factors that were significantly associated with 2-year or 5-year survival were age at diagnosis ≤ 60 years, headaches or signs of raised intracranial pressure at diagnosis, cortical contact of contrast enhancement, no contrast enhancement crossing the midline on initial imaging, total or subtotal tumor resection, and a second line of oncological treatment at recurrence. Within 21 cases of 5-year survival, 18 were confirmed to be glioblastomas, IDH-wildtype, and 7 of the 5-year survivors (38.9%) had additional genetic alterations: 3 cases had an FGFR mutation or fusion, 3 cases had a PIK3CA mutation, 1 case had a PTPN11 mutation, and 1 case had a PMS2 mutation in the context of constitutional mismatch repair deficiency syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS Five-year overall survival in patients with glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype is extremely low. Predictors of a longer survival are mostly treatment factors, emphasizing the importance of a complete oncological treatment plan, when achievable. Glioblastoma, IDH-wildtype 5-year survivors could be screened for actionable targets in case of recurrence.

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Impact of Molecular Subgroups on Prognosis and Survival Outcomes in Posterior Fossa Ependymomas: A Retrospective Study of 412 Cases

Neurosurgery 95:651–659, 2024

Posterior fossa ependymomas (PFEs) are rare brain tumors classified as PF-EPN-A (PFA) and PF-EPN-B (PFB) subgroups. The study aimed to evaluate the prognosis and survival outcomes in PFEs, with a focus on the impact of molecular subgroups.

METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on 412 patients with PFEs. Kaplan–Meier survival analyses were conducted to evaluate the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival. Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess the prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed to predict the OS rates of PFEs.

RESULTS: The study revealed significant differences between PFA and PFB in patient and tumor characteristics. PFAs were associated with poorer OS (hazard ratios [HR] 3.252, 95% CI 1.777-5.950, P < .001) and progression-free survival (HR 4.144, 95% CI 2.869-5.985, P < .001). World Health Organization grade 3 was associated with poorer OS (HR 2.389, 95% CI 1.236-4.617, P = .010). As for treatment patterns, gross total resection followed by radiotherapy or the combination of radiotherapy and chemotherapy yielded the most favorable OS for PFA (P = .025 for both), whereas gross total resection followed by radiotherapy rather than observation showed improved OS for PFB (P = .046). The nomogram demonstrated a high degree of accuracy and discrimination capacity for the prediction of OS rates for up to 10 years. In addition, 6 cases of PFA (3.51%) with H3K27M mutations were identified.

CONCLUSION: PFAs demonstrate worse prognosis and survival outcomes compared with PFBs. Both PFAs and PFBs necessitate maximal resection followed by intensive adjuvant therapies in long-term effects.

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Correlation of anatomical involvement patterns of insular gliomas with subnetworks of the limbic system

J Neurosurg 136:323–334, 2022

Gliomas frequently involve the insula both primarily and secondarily by invasion. Despite the high connectivity of the human insula, gliomas do not spread randomly to or from the insula but follow stereotypical anatomical involvement patterns. In the majority of cases, these patterns correspond to the intrinsic connectivity of the limbic system, except for tumors with aggressive biology. On the basis of these observations, the authors hypothesized that these different involvement patterns may be correlated with distinct outcomes and analyzed these correlations in an institutional cohort.

METHODS Fifty-nine patients who had undergone surgery for insular diffuse gliomas and had complete demographic, pre- and postoperative imaging, pathology, molecular genetics, and clinical follow-up data were included in the analysis (median age 37 years, range 21–71 years, M/F ratio 1.68). Patients with gliomatosis and those with only minor involvement of the insula were excluded. The presence of T2-hyperintense tumor infiltration was evaluated in 12 anatomical structures. Hierarchical biclustering was used to identify co-involved structures, and the findings were correlated with established functional anatomy knowledge. Overall survival was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis (17 parameters).

RESULTS The tumors involved the anterior insula (98.3%), posterior insula (67.8%), temporal operculum (47.5%), amygdala (42.4%), frontal operculum (40.7%), temporal pole (39%), parolfactory area (35.6%), hypothalamus (23.7%), hippocampus (16.9%), thalamus (6.8%), striatum (5.1%), and cingulate gyrus (3.4%). A mean 4.2   2.6 structures were involved. On the basis of hierarchical biclustering, 7 involvement patterns were identified and correlated with cortical functional anatomy (pure insular [11.9%], olfactocentric [15.3%], olfactoopercular [33.9%], operculoinsular [15.3%], striatoinsular [3.4%], translimbic [11.9%], and multifocal [8.5%] patterns). Cox regression identified hippocampal involvement (p = 0.006) and postoperative tumor volume (p = 0.027) as significant negative independent prognosticators of overall survival and extent of resection (p = 0.015) as a significant positive independent prognosticator.

CONCLUSIONS The study findings indicate that insular gliomas primarily involve the olfactocentric limbic girdle and that involvement in the hippocampocentric limbic girdle is associated with a worse prognosis.

 

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How definitive treatment affects the rupture rate of unruptured cerebral aneurysms: a competing risk survival analysis

J Neurosurg 132:1062–1067, 2020

To investigate the risk of bleeding from unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs), previous studies have used Kaplan-Meier analyses without treating the definitive treatment as a competing risk event, which may underestimate the rupture rate. The authors analyzed the survival of patients with UCAs alongside the occurrence of aneurysm bleeding and its competing risk events.

METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on 722 patients diagnosed with UCAs in the period from 2000 to 2009 using an institution’s electronic medical records and telephone interviews. The cumulative incidence of aneurysm rupture was examined, and factors contributing to rupture were assessed using regression analyses.

RESULTS By 2014, 19 patients had experienced aneurysm rupture, with an overall rupture rate of 0.57% per year over 3320.8 person-years. However, cumulative incidence analysis indicated that 1.3% of all patients had a rupture within 2 years after aneurysm identification, and 38.4% of the patients underwent definitive treatment in the same period. Among the patients who experienced rupture, regression analysis revealed that an aneurysm size greater than 5 mm, a location in the anterior or posterior communicating arteries, and an irregular shape contributed to aneurysm rupture, with HRs of 4.4 (95% CI 1.2–15.7), 3.5 (95% CI 1.4–8.7), and 2.1 (95% CI 0.7–6.0), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS Rupture rate analyses using the person-year or standard Kaplan-Meier method are not as informative without consideration of the competing risks. The incidence of aneurysm rupture should be presented clearly with those of competing risks.

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The relationship between repeat resection and overall survival in patients with glioblastoma: a time-dependent analysis

J Neurosurg 129:1231–1239, 2018

Previous studies assessed the relationship between repeat resection and overall survival (OS) in patients with glioblastoma, but ignoring the timing of repeat resection may have led to biased conclusions. Statistical methods that take time into account are well established and applied consistently in other medical fields. The goal of this study was to illustrate the change in the effect of repeat resection on OS in patients with glioblastoma once timing of resection is incorporated.

METHODS The authors conducted a retrospective study of patients initially diagnosed with glioblastoma between January 2005 and December 2014 who were treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. Patients underwent at least 1 craniotomy with both pre- and postoperative MRI data available. The effect of repeat resection on OS was assessed with time-dependent extended Cox regression controlling for extent of resection, initial Karnofsky Performance Scale score, sex, age, multifocal status, eloquent status, and postoperative treatment.

RESULTS Eighty-nine (55%) of 163 patients underwent repeat resection with a median time between resections of 7.7 months (range 0.5–50.8 months). Median OS was 18.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.3–20.5 months) from initial resection. When timing of repeat resection was ignored, repeat resection was associated with a lower risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62, 95% CI 0.43–0.90, p = 0.01); however, when timing was taken into account, repeat resection was associated with a higher risk of death (HR 2.19, 95% CI 1.47–3.28, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS In this study, accounting for timing of repeat resection reversed its protective effect on OS, suggesting repeat resection may not benefit OS in all patients. These findings establish a foundation for future work by accounting for timing of repeat resection using time-dependent methods in the evaluation of repeat resection on OS. Additional recommendations include improved data capture that includes mutational data, development of algorithms for determining eligibility for repeat resection, more rigorous statistical analyses, and the assessment of additional benefits of repeat resection, such as reduction of symptom burden and enhanced quality of life.

 

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An extent of resection threshold for newly diagnosed glioblastomas

J Neurosurg 115:3–8, 2011. DOI: 10.3171/2011.2.JNS10998

The value of extent of resection (EOR) in improving survival in patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) remains controversial. Specifically, it is unclear what proportion of contrast-enhancing tumor must be resected for a survival advantage and how much survival improves beyond this threshold. The authors attempt to define these values for the patient with newly diagnosed GBM in the modern neurosurgical era.

Methods. The authors identified 500 consecutive newly diagnosed patients with supratentorial GBM treated at the University of California, San Francisco between 1997 and 2009. Clinical, radiographic, and outcome parameters were measured for each case, including MR imaging–based volumetric tumor analysis.

Results. The patients had a median age of 60 years and presented with a median Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score of 80. The mean clinical follow-up period was 15.3 months, and no patient was unaccounted for. All patients underwent resection followed by chemotherapy and radiation therapy. The median postoperative tumor volume was 2.3 cm3, equating to a 96% EOR. The median overall survival was 12.2 months. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, age, KPS score, and EOR were predictive of survival (p < 0.0001). A significant survival advantage was seen with as little as 78% EOR, and stepwise improvement in survival was evident even in the 95%–100% EOR range. A recursive partitioning analysis validated these findings and provided additional risk stratification parameters related to age, EOR, and tumor burden.

Conclusions. For patients with newly diagnosed GBMs, aggressive EOR equates to improvement in overall survival, even at the highest levels of resection. Interestingly, subtotal resections as low as 78% also correspond to a survival benefit.

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