Development and internal validation of a risk score for subsidence of expandable spacers in transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) surgery

Brain and Spine 5 (2025) 104322

This study developed and validated the Expandable TLIF Subsidence Index (ETSI) to predict risk of cage subsidence after TLIF surgery with expandable spacers. Key risk factors include high ASA score, non-degenerative indications, lower lumbar level, small cage size, and posterior cage position. Some risk factors are modifiable.

• A risk score (ETSI) was developed to predict cage subsidence (CS) after TLIF surgery using expandable spacers.

• Independent risk factors for CS include high ASA score, non-degenerative surgical indication, lower lumbar level, small cage size, and posterior cage position.

• ETSI ranges from -2 to 6 points and shows a moderate ability to classify CS risk (AUROC ≈ 0.68).

• Modifiable risk factors (cage size and position) can reduce CS risk if optimized by the surgeon.

• Higher ETSI scores are associated with increased risk of non-union/pseudarthrosis at 3 and 12 months.

• Anterior placement of the cage lowers subsidence risk, while posterior placement increases it.

• The study included 388 patients with a 3-month CS rate of 31.7%.

• The ETSI is the first comprehensive scoring system for CS risk with expandable TLIF cages.