Development and internal validation of a risk score for subsidence of expandable spacers in transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) surgery

Brain and Spine 5 (2025) 104322

This study developed and internally validated the Expandable TLIF Subsidence Index (ETSI) to predict risk of cage subsidence after TLIF surgery with expandable spacers. Key risk factors include high ASA score, non-degenerative indication, lower lumbar levels, small cage size, and posterior cage position.

• A risk score (Expandable TLIF Subsidence Index, ETSI) was developed to predict cage subsidence (CS) after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) using expandable spacers.

• The study analyzed 388 patients (482 levels), finding a 31.7% CS rate at 3 months.

• Independent risk factors for CS included high ASA score, non-degenerative surgical indication, lower lumbar level, small cage size, and posterior cage position.

• The ETSI score ranges from -2 to 6; higher scores indicate higher CS risk (each point increases CS odds by about 2x).

• Modifiable risk factors (cage size and position) can reduce CS risk if addressed during surgery.

• Higher ETSI scores are also associated with increased risk of non-union/pseudarthrosis.

• The ETSI demonstrated moderate predictive performance (AUROC ≈ 0.68).

• The score may aid surgical planning and should be externally validated in future studies.